{"id":130501,"date":"2025-10-16T22:00:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T22:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realeast.biz\/tr\/?p=130501"},"modified":"2026-03-31T17:28:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T17:28:00","slug":"obzor-rynka-nedvizhimosti-turczii-oktyabr-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realeast.biz\/en\/obzor-rynka-nedvizhimosti-turczii-oktyabr-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Overview of the Turkish Real Estate Market – October 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Turkish real estate market in October 2025 presents a complex yet dynamic picture. Amid ongoing efforts to curb inflation and a significant rise in mortgage sales, the real value of housing continues to decline. This article, based on the latest data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (T\u00dc\u0130K) and the Central Bank of the Republic of T\u00fcrkiye (TCMB), provides an in-depth analysis of current trends, the macroeconomic background, and 2026 forecasts for investors and homebuyers.<\/p>\n

Macroeconomic Background and Its Impact on the Real Estate Market<\/h2>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s macroeconomic policies aimed at reducing inflation are directly influencing the property market. Key factors such as construction costs and credit interest rates shape the current market dynamics.<\/p>\n

Inflation, Loan Rates, and Construction Costs<\/h3>\n

According to T\u00dc\u0130K, the Construction Cost Index (\u0130n\u015faat Maliyet Endeksi) rose by 22.82%<\/strong> year-on-year in August 2025 [1]. Labor costs increased by 30.16%<\/strong>, outpacing the 19.17%<\/strong> rise in material costs \u2014 indicating mounting pressure on developers due to workforce expenses.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicator<\/th>\nAugust 2025 (YoY, %)<\/th>\nSource<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Total Construction Cost Index<\/td>\n22.82%<\/td>\nT\u00dc\u0130K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Material Index<\/td>\n19.17%<\/td>\nT\u00dc\u0130K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Labor Index<\/td>\n30.16%<\/td>\nT\u00dc\u0130K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Rental Regulation<\/h3>\n

On July 1, 2024, the 25% legal cap on rent increases for residential properties was lifted. As of October 2025, the new maximum legal rent increase stands at 38.36%<\/strong>, based on the 12-month average Consumer Price Index (T\u00dcFE) [2]. This change is expected to make rental property investments more attractive.<\/p>\n

Overall Market Statistics and Trends in 2025<\/h2>\n

Housing Sales and Mortgages<\/h3>\n

In September 2025, 150,657<\/strong> residential properties were sold across T\u00fcrkiye \u2014 a 6.9%<\/strong> increase compared to the same month last year [3]. During the first nine months of 2025, total sales reached 1.13 million units<\/strong>, up by 19.2%<\/strong> year-on-year.<\/p>\n

The strongest growth was recorded in the mortgage segment, up 34.4%<\/strong> year-on-year (21,266 transactions), suggesting that buyers continue to use credit despite high interest rates, possibly due to inflation expectations.<\/p>\n

Housing Price Index (KFE)<\/h3>\n

According to the Central Bank of T\u00fcrkiye, the Housing Price Index (KFE) increased by 32.2%<\/strong> year-on-year in September 2025 [4]. However, due to high inflation, the real value of housing continues to decline for the 20th consecutive month \u2014 meaning prices rise in lira terms but lose purchasing power.<\/p>\n

Regional Differences<\/h3>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
City<\/th>\nSales (September 2025)<\/th>\nShare of Total (%)<\/th>\nMonthly KFE Growth (%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
\u0130stanbul<\/td>\n24,119<\/td>\n16.0%<\/td>\n1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ankara<\/td>\n13,417<\/td>\n8.9%<\/td>\n2.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130zmir<\/td>\n8,544<\/td>\n5.7%<\/td>\n2.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\u0130zmir and Ankara show higher monthly price increases (2.9% and 2.3%) than \u0130stanbul (1.5%), indicating a demand shift toward less saturated metropolitan areas.<\/p>\n

Foreign Buyer Activity<\/h3>\n

Sales to foreigners continue to decline. In September 2025, 1,867<\/strong> properties were sold to foreign buyers \u2014 down 7.7%<\/strong> year-on-year [3]. Between January and September, the decline reached 12.6%<\/strong>, with foreign sales accounting for only 1.2%<\/strong> of total transactions.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Country<\/th>\nNumber of Properties Sold (September 2025)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Russia<\/td>\n267<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iran<\/td>\n202<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iraq<\/td>\n146<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Germany<\/td>\n121<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ukraine<\/td>\n118<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Property Segments: Residential and Commercial<\/h2>\n

Residential: Primary vs. Secondary Market<\/h3>\n

In September 2025, the secondary housing market dominated, accounting for 68.7%<\/strong> of all sales (103,540 units), up 7.8%<\/strong> year-on-year [3]. The primary market (new builds) represented 31.3%<\/strong> (47,117 units), with a 5.0%<\/strong> increase. This highlights strong demand for ready-to-use properties \u2014 assets that can immediately generate rental income or serve as inflation protection.<\/p>\n

Commercial Real Estate<\/h3>\n

According to TCMB data, the Commercial Property Price Index (TGFE) rose by 31.9%<\/strong> nominally in Q2 2025, but fell 3.1%<\/strong> in real terms [5]. \u0130zmir (+38.6%) and Ankara (+35.6%) outperformed \u0130stanbul (+25.9%).<\/p>\n

Growth Drivers and Risks<\/h2>\n

Growth Factors<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • Urbanization and migration to large cities sustain housing demand.<\/li>\n
  • Real estate remains a key hedge against inflation.<\/li>\n
  • Mortgage sales continue to grow despite high interest rates.<\/li>\n
  • Government incentives and citizenship programs still support investment appetite.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Risks and Limitations<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • Falling real housing values may weaken investor confidence.<\/li>\n
    • Exchange rate volatility creates uncertainty for foreign investors.<\/li>\n
    • High borrowing costs limit mass affordability, despite credit growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Forecasts and Scenarios for Late 2025 and 2026<\/h2>\n

      Analysts agree that 2026 will mark a year of recovery, provided that current macroeconomic policies continue and inflation declines as expected.<\/p>\n

        \n
      • Rate cuts expected:<\/strong> Lower key rates in 2026 are likely to reduce mortgage costs and stimulate demand [6].<\/li>\n
      • Sales growth:<\/strong> Overall housing sales are projected to increase by 15\u201320%, and commercial real estate by 10\u201315% [7].<\/li>\n
      • Real price growth:<\/strong> As inflation slows, nominal housing prices are expected to rise faster than inflation for the first time in two years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Cities such as Ankara, \u0130zmir, and Antalya \u2014 with strong domestic demand and developing infrastructure \u2014 are expected to lead the market growth.<\/p>\n

        Practical Tips for Investors and Buyers<\/h2>\n
          \n
        1. Focus on real<\/strong> price trends (KFE) rather than nominal growth.<\/li>\n
        2. Prioritize the secondary market<\/strong> (68.7% of all sales) for higher liquidity and faster returns.<\/li>\n
        3. Use mortgages<\/strong> strategically as a hedge against inflation.<\/li>\n
        4. Consider Ankara<\/strong> and \u0130zmir<\/strong> for faster-growing markets.<\/li>\n
        5. Check rental yield<\/strong>: with rent caps removed, returns up to 38.36% (October 2025) are possible.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Conclusion<\/h2>\n

          The Turkish real estate market in October 2025 stands at a turning point. Strong mortgage activity and sustained sales support the sector\u2019s resilience, but declining real prices and weakening foreign demand call for a cautious approach.<\/p>\n

            \n
          • Resilient market:<\/strong> Sales volumes remain strong, especially in secondary housing.<\/li>\n
          • Real value down:<\/strong> Nominal price growth (32.2%) still lags behind inflation.<\/li>\n
          • 2026 outlook:<\/strong> Expected recovery with positive real price growth driven by rate cuts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)<\/h2>\n